Jun 7, 2020

9 Steps to Prevent Armed Conflict in U.S. 2020 Presidential Elections

An Outline for State and Local Policymakers to Secure Safe U.S. Presidential Elections in November 2020
By Matthew R. Bishop / filmsforaction.org
9 Steps to Prevent Armed Conflict in U.S. 2020 Presidential Elections
Example of a non-partisan ad encouraging citizens to vote

I am an international conflict prevention specialist and a two-tour U.S. federal crisis responder. I helped frame peace dialogues in Afghanistan and Somalia. I wrote my dissertation on the subject of dehumanization and conflict priming in early-phase global conflict. I wrote my thesis on revolutions. I ran two world news companies specializing in early-stage, prevention-focused political conflict news.

I never thought I would need to write this kind of article about my own country, but this is one of the most certain forecasts I have ever made: Unless dramatic changes occur, there is almost no scenario where the United States does not erupt in widespread violence this November.

In a previous article, I covered the four most likely election scenarios. Since then, the national crisis has escalated dramatically. It now seems inevitable that we are heading into a contested election scenario where either the conduct or the results of the election can trigger civil violence. This remains likely regardless of who wins the election.

Further developments have only added more fuel to the fire. In early June, President Trump announced he would withdraw 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany, recalling them back into the U.S. just two months ahead of the November elections. At the same time, Trump’s official campaign launched a website, ArmyForTrump.com, which encourages civilian volunteers to “enlist” in the “fight” for “Trump’s Army.” Several times in a single week, he referred to crowds of unarmed civilian protestors as “terrorists”, establishing a legal precedent for the widespread use of lethal force against American civilians.

While we are still collecting data to assess casualties, it appears at least fifteen American civilian protestors have already been killed by police or federal forces between May 31st, 2020 to June 5th, 2020. Violent videos of these incidents have shocked audiences around the world. During this time, 36 journalists were shot, 76 journalists were assaulted, and 19 journalists were arrested—some of them as they had their backs turned and were running away—yet the President only thirsted for even more violence, commanding his generals to send 10,000 active-duty troops into American cities around the country to crack down on dissent.

These are all of the most basic check-marks of a fascist totalitarian state, and they are beyond obvious to any clear-minded observer. The warning signs all point to the same dismal conclusion: Trump will try to instigate a full-on civil war if it looks like he might lose an election. He is building up both the physical forces and the legal groundwork to do exactly that. Furthermore, from now until November, he will do anything and everything he can to crack down on electoral processes and forcibly manipulate the results in his favor, just as any other fascist would in any other country.

It is not too late to change the variables which will produce this violence. Assuming that the President will fight against electoral fairness, we must assume the federal government is now the enemy of democracy. Therefore this article is intended for state and local policymakers. Here is what U.S. States, cities, and election organizations need to do in order to change the equation heading into November:

 

1: Secure Physical Polling Locations

This is the most critical precautionary step that we can take. I cannot emphasize that enough. Each of these three steps is absolutely necessary.

I: HEALTH SAFETY Expecting a second wave of COVID-19, we need to secure these locations against health hazards. We need to ensure social distancing can take place. We need to require that everyone wears a mask. We need to keep machines clean. We need to guard both the voters and the polls themselves against the threat of a lethal airborne plague, expecting that it will return in September, as current models predict.

II: PHYSICAL SAFETY Expecting civil unrest, we need to make sure these locations are physically secured, ideally by National Guard troops. National Guard troops have more training than police, are less likely to be perceived as hostile, and are considered to be less partisan and less political than local police forces. Anticipating that the President will encourage his militias to occupy polling centers and intimidate voters, Governors should summon all of their National Guard forces to secure physical control of every polling location. These forces do not, and should not, obey or respond to the President of the United States, as recently clarified by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

III: STAYING OPEN Assuming that malicious actors will continue their attempts to destabilize and delegitimize absentee voting processes, we must commit to keeping all physical polling locations open for the full duration of the election, even at the cost of spreading the virus and killing more Americans. Trump and his regime have demonstrated a perverse eagerness to destroy mail-in voting and absentee voting capabilities in an attempt to stifle election turnout. Assuming they will succeed, Americans everywhere must be prepared to die for their right to vote in-person. That’s just how it is. If even a handful of U.S. cities choose to close their physical polling locations, without any reliable or consistent absentee voting infrastructure in place, that decision could delegitimize the entire election. All of these locations must remain completely open and operational even against medical advice. This is non-negotiable if we want the United States of America to survive beyond 2020.

 

2: Mobilize High Voter Turnout

High voter turnout means that both the conduct and the result of the election will be perceived as more legitimate in the eyes of American citizens. This is a key opportunity for us to reduce the conflict risk variable, and it applies regardless of who wins. In order of most important to least important:

I: EXPAND ONLINE, ABSENTEE, AND MAIL-IN VOTING Wherever possible, States and other actors must expand online, mail-in, and absentee voting in order to facilitate and encourage higher voter turnout, consistent electoral fairness, and greater electoral legitimacy. Certain voters might not have a printer, but they do have a laptop and they can access an online ballot. Other voters might have a printer, but they cannot operate a computer. Some voters are homeless in the wake of COVID-19 shutdowns and they do not have an address, but they would vote in absentee if they were allowed to. States and electoral decisionmakers need to account for each of these variables, and design solutions for each of them, if their honest goal is to run a fair and credible election.

II: VOTING HOLIDAYS States and cities should allow for multiple voting holidays. Doing so expands voter turnout while also reducing the dual risks of both physical violence and the spread of COVID-19. It allows for polling centers to enforce social distancing. Elderly voters will feel more comfortable, and working-age voters might not even need to take a day off work if they’re given the choice of different voting holiday dates.

III: EXPANDED VOTING HOURS, DATES States and cities can enable citizens to vote who otherwise cannot vote during regular hours or dates of operation simply by expanding their hours and dates of operation.

IV: NON-PARTISAN ADVERTISING Pro-democracy and electoral agencies can advertise to encourage citizens to participate in elections. By naming no names, by pointing no fingers, and by avoiding any party affiliation, non-partisan advertisers can assert the simple argument that votes matter.

 

3: Electoral College Votes Must Go to the Winner of the National Popular Vote

If President Trump loses, he will contest the election and attempt to start a civil war. This is not a variable. The only variable is if he will succeed.

If President Trump wins, it is almost certain that he will do so after losing the national popular vote, but winning narrowly in the State Electoral vote. A repeat of 2016 will produce a federal government widely perceived as illegitimate, with even less credible authority than the current regime. This situation also produces electoral violence and widespread conflict.

In sum, we should anticipate violence regardless of who wins or loses.

The only way to avoid this is to sync the electoral vote with the national popular vote. Only a candidate dually endowed by the people of the United States and their electors will be immune to arguments of election fraud and illegitimate rule. There is no other way to avoid these claims.

If the Electoral College is synced with the national popular vote, however, the winner of this election will have every right to rule, and then the loser will not have any grounds on which to levy accusations of fraud or false government. This dramatically reduces both the severity and the likelihood of a contested election scenario, which in turn removes a key trigger event which otherwise might lead to a widespread conflict.

Without taking this final step, State governments, judges, and federal regulators concede to a much higher probability of electoral violence in and beyond November of 2020.

 

4: Consistent, Deliberate, and Proactive

All of these recommendations, in each of these categories, must be enacted consistently, deliberately, and proactively throughout the country well in advance of November.

If the country does all of this successfully, we can almost entirely eliminate the probability of widespread electoral violence. Furthermore, we can avoid the contested election scenario altogether, thereby removing the trigger event for violence to occur in the first place.

These are the steps that States, regulators, and election decisionmakers must make throughout the entire United States of America, and they must begin taking those steps today.

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