PHASE 1 - EARLY VICTIMS First victims are creatives (default value of creativity is zero) Back office (clerical, administrative) is on deck RULE OF THUMB: forgivable and unregulated jobs most vulnerable
PHASE 2 - WINDING DOWN Shorter work weeks proposed as a way to transition away from human labor Gives people time to adapt to life after work, find new hobbies, find new meaning, etc Gives companies an opportunity (and incentive) to automate more stuff
RECOMMENDATION: Move to a 4 day work week ASAP, then a 3 day. This will pave the way for a smoother transition!
RECOMMENDATION: Remote work so that people can preemptively move to lower cost and preferred areas to live (prime example: ME)
PHASE 3 - SAFETY NETS As TOTAL EMPLOYMENT plateaus and begins to drop, the establishment (Fed, States) acknowledge the reality Existing tools (unemployment benefits, etc) expanded and utilized while STATUS QUO is attempted to be put back As NEETs continue to rise, acknolwedge of NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM emerges (Post-Labor Economics is needed)
MILESTONE: Politicians and mainstream media start talking about this stuff (might use different names) but watch for AGI and "labor market" shifts
PHASE 4 - POST-LABOR ECONOMICS Cities, States, and Federal governments all reconcile with the new economic paradigm UBI and UBS implemented (probably starting with stuff like basic utilities, power, water, internet, phone)
REDISTRIBUTION of some form becomes necessary but problems persist!
NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT
Old social contract: "Government mediates relationship between labor and business" But labor is going away... so now what?
New social contract: "Government mediates relationship between citizens and business" Okay... but what does that look like?
ECONOMIC AGENCY
Biggest problem with UBI and UBS is that it takes away most agency
Sure, you can choose where to live (unless housing is alloted to you) but that's just straight up Communism with a capital C NO ME GUSTA
So how do we maintain economic agency in this Post-Labor Economics paradigm when we aren't exchanging labor in a labor market?
DECENTRALIZED OWNERSHIP
It hit me like a ton of bricks - duh! Decentralized ownership!! DAOs - maybe one path forward Public Trusts - another option Local Coops - farms, utilities, goods and services SWARM DAO Vaguely launching an expansion of my agent swarm initiative I think that a DAO could be a great way for collective ownership of AI-driven companies
This model could be congruent with capitalism and wealthy investors (they can still invest in anything, but we all get more equal voting power, and the AI swarm abides by stakeholder capitalism rather than shareholder capitalism)
This is HIGHLY experimental and speculative
EXPERTISE GAP
Not everyone is an expert manager, or qualified to run these things
AI to the rescue! If AI is smart enough to dislocate 80% of jobs (or more) then it's smart enough to run utilities and businesses ON OUR BEHALF
Maybe blockchain/DAO is the way we manage and direct the AI?
STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM
Pushed by Larry Fink of Black Rock (kinda sus, NGL) Idea is simple: instead of maximizing value of shareholders (which kills the planet) you maximize value of all stakeholders
Customers, employees, vendors, environment, and bystanders
What if... this is part of the new social contract? What if... the way we implement this is with decentralized ownership?
CITY POLICIES Towns and cities everywhere can prepare for URBAN EXODUS
Moving out of expensive cities to lower COL places is key for everyone (economic efficiency, lifestyle changes) UBS best organized and operated locally Circular economics implemented at municipal level too STATE POLICIES Collective ownership generally established at state level (Vermont allows for DAOs) Relocation and resettlement support and initiatives Some UBI and redistribution should happen at state level as well, other safety nets FEDERAL POLICIES New Social Contract must be led by president and congress Teddy's Square Deal, Franklin's New Deal, now we need Dave's Fair Deal (lol) Renegotiating the social contract and gently transitioning to this new economic paradigm is absolutely critical for the stability of the nation TIMELINE IMF and Goldman Sachs aim for around 2027 to 2028 when all this really starts to ramp up We should expect gradual expansion of "Frontier of Automation" starting... yesterday Regulatory hurdles take a while Bell curve of adoption will still be a thing (presently in Early Adopters phase, Early Majority to start in 2024)