Lawrence, KS - Events Local News Groups Contact
Iran's Political Coup
By Indy Media / filmsforaction.org
Jun 15, 2009
If the reports coming out of Tehran about an electoral coup are sustained, then Iran has entered an entirely new phase of its post-revolution history. One characteristic that has always distinguished Iran from the crude dictators in much of the rest of the Middle East was its respect for the voice of the people, even when that voice was saying things that much of the leadership did not want to hear.

In 1997, Iran’s hard line leadership was stunned by the landslide election of Mohammed Khatami, a reformer who promised to bring rule of law and a more human face to the harsh visage of the Iranian revolution. It took the authorities almost a year to recover their composure and to reassert their control through naked force and cynical manipulation of the constitution and legal system. The authorities did not, however, falsify the election results and even permitted a resounding reelection four years later. Instead, they preferred to prevent the president from implementing his reform program.

In 2005, when it appeared that no hard line conservative might survive the first round of the presidential election, there were credible reports of ballot manipulation to insure that Mr Ahmadinejad could run (and win) against former president Rafsanjani in the second round. The lesson seemed to be that the authorities might shift the results in a close election but they would not reverse a landslide vote.

The current election appears to repudiate both of those rules. The authorities were faced with a credible challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had the potential to challenge the existing power structure on certain key issues. He ran a surprisingly effective campaign, and his “green wave” began to be seen as more than a wave. In fact, many began calling it a Green Revolution. For a regime that has been terrified about the possibility of a “velvet revolution,” this may have been too much.

On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12.

* Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide
* Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers
* The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men
* National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner
* The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull them into complacency
* But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad
* Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility
* The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link)
* Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements
* Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.

All of this had the appearance of a well orchestrated strike intended to take its opponents by surprise – the classic definition of a coup. Curiously, this was not a coup of an outside group against the ruling elite; it was a coup of the ruling elite against its own people.

It is still too early for anything like a comprehensive analysis of implications, but here are some initial thoughts:

1. The willingness of the regime simply to ignore reality and fabricate election results without the slightest effort to conceal the fraud represents a historic shift in Iran’s Islamic revolution. All previous leaders at least paid lip service to the voice of the Iranian people. This suggests that Iran’s leaders are aware of the fact that they have lost credibility in the eyes of many (most?) of their countrymen, so they are dispensing with even the pretense of popular legitimacy in favor of raw power.

2. The Iranian opposition, which includes some very powerful individuals and institutions, has an agonizing decision to make. If they are intimidated and silenced by the show of force (as they have been in the past), they will lose all credibility in the future with even their most devoted followers. But if they choose to confront their ruthless colleagues forcefully, not only is it likely to be messy but it could risk running out of control and potentially bring down the entire existing power structure, of which they are participants and beneficiaries.

Read the rest: http://garysick.tumblr.com/post/123070238/irans-political-coup

Live blogging of events in Iran as they unfold at the HuffingtonPost: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
0.0 ·
0
Trending Today
The Top 100 Documentaries We Can Use to Change the World
Films For Action13,100 views today ·
10 Films That Make It Easy to See How Our Economy Is Killing the Planet
Tim Hjersted4,401 views today ·
Aid in Reverse: How Poor Countries Develop Rich Countries
Jason Hickel3,837 views today ·
Get Out of the Materialism Trap NOW
10 min2,723 views today ·
The Top 100 Documentaries Inspiring the Shift to a Sustainable Paradigm (2012 Edition)
Films For Action2,211 views today ·
The Western Idea of Private Property Is Flawed. Indigenous Peoples Have It Right
Julian Brave Noisecat1,879 views today ·
Occupy Your Brain: On Power, Knowledge, and the Re-Occupation of Common Sense
Carol Black1,664 views today ·
Tomorrow: Take Concrete Steps To A Sustainable Future
2 min1,578 views today ·
The Impossible Hamster
1 min1,212 views today ·
Load More
What's Next
Louis Theroux: The Ultra Zionists (2011)
59 min
The Great Everything & the Nothing (2016)
111 min
Belo Monte, An Announcement of War (2012)
105 min
Like us on Facebook?
Iran's Political Coup